Gong On Song For Sea Change
Illawarra Mercury
Tuesday April 6, 2004
THREE-STOREY red brick units being replaced by large modern residential developments and the election of a Greens member were signs the Illawarra economy had changed socially and economically during the last decade.
On the surface the two observations by Illawarra Regional Information Service executive director Martin O'Shannessy might not seem revolutionary.
But at their core they showed how a national population shift from suburbia to provincial coastal centres such as the Illawarra had influenced culture and thinking in cities like Wollongong.
As Illawarra Business celebrates its 10th anniversary and looks back on the last decade, a presentation by Mr O'Shannessy during a keynote address at an Institute of Chartered Accountants's country congress best summarised what has happened in the region and city since 1994.
The region now has a larger more educated population.
Between 1986 and 2001 Wollongong's population increased 14 per cent while the number of people with post graduate degrees increased 470 per cent.
The number of people with bachelor degrees tripled.
But despite the dramatic increase in tertiary qualifications it wasn't enough to stop the city experiencing a record period of 15 consecutive quarters of labour shortages and escalating levels of youth unemployment.
Mr O'Shannessy noted the influence of a national population shift on Wollongong as many people moved back out of the big cities with ambitions to live at a coastal centre within commuting distance of a state capital.
Baby boomers, middle age refugees and the over 40s were flooding into coastal centres like Wollongong and Nowra and were bringing with them more money and new ideas.
But they also brought development, transport and employment challenges for civic leaders, town planners and governments.
Despite the demographic make-up the population growth had equalled and would continue to equal economic growth.
Every 10,000 additional residents supported 3700 new suburban households or 6700 new inner city households, $70million in new retail spending, $25 million in supermarket spending, half a Kmart, one cinema screen and 7500 cubic metres of concrete.
Mr O'Shannessy said population shift towards provincial coastal centres was wonderful news for many regions like the Illawarra and the Hunter that had experienced an economic decline during the 1970s as tariff cuts, industry deregulation, industrial downsizing and a decline in decentralisation began to bite.
It was also the reason why the property market would continue to remain relatively stable.
Mr O'Shannessy said Wollongong would reach the point when the market would eventually slow down but its proximity to Sydney would help it ride through the troughs.
``Sydney is Australia's biggest market and as a result it impacts on us," he said.
``It tends to sustain the regional centres near it against the trend. What we have is this wonderful experience of living near this tremendous market where people will still find the benefit of coming here."
And as transport infrastructure improved it would become even more attractive for people who chose to live in Wollongong and commute to Sydney.
Meanwhile during the recent boom, as property prices escalated dramatically for residential property in Sydney, the Illawarra became a more appealing option for people living in the suburbs who saw it as an affordable refuge and a good lifestyle choice.
Wollongong had not only been discovered during the last decade but its image had changed.
No longer was it just considered a steel town.
It was now a lifestyle centre of choice.
The concern was the population increase between 1986 and 2001 hadn't matched the same level of workforce growth enjoyed by other centres such as Gosford, which experienced 49 per cent population growth and a 57 per cent increase in the size of the workforce, and Geelong, which enjoyed an 18 per cent increase in residents and 25 per cent expansion in the size of its workforce.
In Wollongong a 14 per cent growth in population size had resulted in a 14 per cent increase in the workforce.
Mr O'Shannessy said reasons for that included the fact that many working age people relocated to Wollongong but still worked in Sydney.
Wollongong also attracted many retirement age baby boomers, a 66 per cent rise in people over 65 who were moving out of the workforce and looking for a better lifestyle.
They were one of the reasons why there had been such a consistent rise in property prices.
The median house price in Wollongong was now $391,000 compared to $353,500 in Gosford and $275,000 in Geelong.
The median unit price in Wollongong was $279,300 and in Gosford it was $282,000.
Mr O'Shannessy said as the market crept up it would eventually reach a stage where property prices were no longer considered cheap compared to Sydney.
He said the significance of the coastal push was highlighted by a table showing the top 25 move-to-zones in NSW in the past 25 years.
The top eight centres were all on the coast and only six of the 25, including Wingecarribee at number nine, were considered non-coastal. Shoalhaven, Shellharbour, Wollongong and Wingecarribee all featured in the top 10.
In all four centres the migration had predominantly flowed from Sydney suburbs.
While such growth was positive Mr O'Shannessy said it hadn't addressed the challenge the region faced through a persistent labour shortage that had been recorded in 15 consecutive quarters of IRIS research and it was occurring at a time when there was a high rate of youth unemployment.
Ironically it had also occurred when Wollongong had experienced a dramatic rise in education levels.
Mr O'Shannessy said the University of Wollongong, the third largest business in Wollongong, was mostly responsible for increasing education levels in Wollongong and Southern Sydney and hoped a more educated workforce would result in an increase in the size of the labour force.
Mr O'Shannessy said it was an amazing time of opportunity for people to make a seachange..
New people brought new ideas, initiatives and creativity, an increase in demand for leisure activities and markets for labour, land and housing.
It had also brought a change to the political landscape which partly explained why the bi-election for the federal seat of Cunningham produced Australia's first Green member of Federal Parliament.
The ongoing challenge in dealing with a population tide was to control the wave with appropriate development, Mr O'Shannessy said.
Wollongong had seen a tidal wave of money coming into the city, resulting in people paying premium unit prices.
But it was having an impact on the availability of office accommodation where commercial users had to justify the price or rental fee for the property.
A crowded market made that difficult and it was important to have an adequate number of commercial and retail developments.
It was one of the reasons why there had been a push for more height in residential buildings.
It was a debate over an issue affecting the community that needed a balanced outcome.
Looking at the future Mr O'Shannessy said despite the rapid growth in the service, education and recreation sector traditional industry players such as BlueScope Steel also had a very strong future.
BlueScope's Port Kembla plant was the largest integrated steelworks in the Southern Hemisphere and its operations were linked to about 20 other installations in Australia and overseas.
The company dominated the market for residential construction products, it was the most efficient steel maker using its technology and the most efficient steelmaker generally outside of Japan.
In the medical field in Wollongong the signs were also good.
The city had a very good teaching hospital that had gone from being the 14th most chosen hospital for people to do their registrar work two years ago to the fifth most popular today.
In response to a question on the impact the expansion of Port Kembla Harbour would have on the city's desirability as a place to live Mr O'Shannessy didn't believe it would be an issue.
He said more traffic coming through the port would increase industrial activity but the transport infrastructure that activity would require was more than able to cope.
The roads used by heavy transport were built at a time when the Southern Coalfields were in their heyday.
``Even with the best case scenario for the growth of the Port we would be at about 75 per cent of our annual tonnage capacity on our roads," Mr O'Shannessy said.
``We are only at about 50 per cent now."
He said there might be an issue on one section of Mt Ousley.
As far as the Port's capacity to handle increased volumes of trade without impacting on people's lifestyles, he couldn't image a problem.
``I think we are up to it," he said.
``We will take the jobs."
In response to a question about Illawarra's economic future he felt the region would maintain a high level of economic growth so long as the Australian economy didn't price itself out of the market as an exporter.
Industry employment change
Top 10 in percentage growth from 1986 to 2001
160 per cent - property and business services
141 per cent - cultural and recreational services
99 per cent - accommodation, cafes and restaurants
84 per cent - personal and other services
68 per cent - health and community services
47 per cent - retail trade
46 per cent - education
44 per cent - construction
29 per cent - finance and insurance
27 per cent - government administration and defence
Bottom three.
-66 per cent - mining
-65 per cent - electricity, gas and water supply
-31 per cent - manufacturing
Fastest growing centres.
Lake Macquarie
Tweed
Port Stephens
Shoalhaven
Shellharbour
Hastings
Coffs Harbour
Wollongong
Wingecarribee
Byron
Inter-migration into
Wollongong 1996 - 2001
12392 people from Sydney
5624 people from overseas
3616 from other states
3365 other NSW.
Commuters
Gosford to Sydney - 24699
Illawarra to Sydney - 18,239
Wollongong to Sydney - 15,643
Gold Coast to Brisbane - 15,195
Newcastle to Sydney - 11,519
Geelong to Melbourne - 9,681
Median house prices 2003
Wollongong $391,000
Gosford $353,500
Geelong $275,000
National population shift
Population 1901 2001
Inner City 25 5
Suburbia 15 58
Coastal 8 19
Rural 52 18
During the last century Australians had moved from the country to the suburbs but more recently people had started moving out of the suburbs and made a coastal lifestyle choice within commuting distance of major capital cities.
© 2004 Illawarra Mercury
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