Peter Sterling's Previews Round 12

Sydney Morning Herald

Friday May 28, 2004

Peter Sterling

All Sydney times

Bye: North Queensland

Brisbane v St George Illawarra

Friday 7.40pm Suncorp Stadium Referee: T Mander

TV: Delayed Channel Nine, 8.30pm FootyTAB St Geo Illa + 5 1/2

STERLING SAYS: Brisbane

The grind begins for Brisbane as of now with their commitment to Origin certain to impact at club level, with Webcke being a definite casualty. Plenty will back up but their bench is capable of covering those most fatigued. Dragons played with enthusiasm and smiles on their faces against the Eels but meet a side that will punish them if ball control is not improved. The return of Thompson is a definite lift, while Poore and Sims were superb last week. Head was their obvious man of the match but the pressure from the Broncos' defence ensures a much tougher evening for the halfback.

Brisbane St George Illawarra

(1) K Hunt (1) B Hornby

(2) S Kelly (2) D Howell

(3) B Tate (3) B Creagh

(4) M De Vere (19)M Gasnier

(5) C Frawley (5) R Simmonds

(6) B Ikin (6) D Holdsworth

(7) C McGuire (7) M Head

(13) T Carroll (13) S Timmins (c)

(12) D Carlaw (12) L Thompson

(11) G Tallis (c) (11) D Young

(10) P Civoniceva (10) J Poore

(9) M Ryan (9) M Riddell

(14)C Parker (8) B Kite

Reserves: Brisbane: D Mapp, N Costigan, C Webb,

B Meyers, N Parfitt, S Thaiday (two to be omitted).

St George Illawarra: L Withers, A Sims, B Norrie,

A Wheatley, T Jensen, J Carlaw (two to be omitted).

STATISTICS

Head to head

Brisbane 6, St George Illa 4

At Suncorp Stadium

Brisbane 0, St George Illa 1

Last weekend

Brisbane Bye

St George Illa 37 Parramatta 6

2004 positions

Brisbane: 2nd

St Geo Illa: 6th

GREG PRICHARD'S VERDICT

This game is a minefield. The Dragons are still missing several Test-class players but history says don't use injuries to write this team off. The Broncos have lost Shane Webcke and have five other players backing up from State of Origin I, while the Dragons have just two backing up. The game is in Brisbane but the Dragons have proved when they are ``up" for a match it doesn't matter where it is and they love playing the Broncos. Still, looking for an edge to either side, it may just come in the shape of a fresh and fired up Gorden Tallis for the home side.

Cronulla v South Sydney

Saturday 5.35pm Toyota Park Referee: S Lyons

TV: Live Fox Sports 1 FootyTAB South Sydney +16 1/2

STERLING SAYS: Cronulla

The Sharks are a much better team when they incorporate second-phase football and Stevens is providing plenty of value in that area. Such interplay takes much of the pressure off Kimmorley, who is able to look more at quality than quantity. Peachey also comes into the equation when giving them an extra prong in attack. The solidity of Gallen at five-eighth is working, their style still allows him to play like a back-rower. The Rabbits are capable of an upset but further changes in the halves can't help their continuity. Harrison has been their best player at lock and is not a five-eighth. Close to the line the Sharks will look to the talents of Vagana and Bailey.

Cronulla South Sydney

(1) D Peachey (1) B Watts

(2) N Merritt (2) W Tillott

(3) N Vagana (3) L Hookey

(4) R McGoldrick (4) S Marteene

(5) D Simmons (5) L MacDougall

(6) P Gallen (6) A Harrison

(7) B Kimmorley (c) (7) J Williams

(13) P Bailey (13) S Rigon

(12) K Galloway (12) M Minichiello

(11) M Bickerstaff (11) B Fletcher (c)

(10) D Nutley (10) G Hall

(9) M Hilder (9) S Walker

(8) J Stevens (8) L Stuart

Reserves: Cronulla: S Isemonger, R Williams, M Sullivan,

A Lomu.

South Sydney: D Fa'alogo, B Kearney, D Thompson,

W Manu.

STATISTICS

Head to head

Cronulla 35, South Sydney 26, drawn 3

At Toyota Park

Cronulla 21, South Sydney 7, drawn 1

Last weekend

Cronulla 30 Manly 28

South Sydney 12 Warriors 26

2004 positions

Cronulla: 11th

South Sydney: 15th

GREG PRICHARD'S VERDICT

The Rabbitohs were in far better shape in terms of injuries when they whipped the Sharks 36-12 eight weeks ago. The Sharks have gone a reasonable distance forward since then, turning a win-loss record of 1-3 into 5-6, and the Rabbitohs have gone a lot further backwards, from 2-1 to 2-7, with one draw. The Rabbitohs may prevent the Sharks from covering the points start of up to 16.5 but it is hard to picture the Rabbitohs winning. Sharks halfback Brett Kimmorley will sniff the NSW job with Craig Gower injured, so expect a big one from him.

Canberra v Manly

Saturday 7.35pm Canberra Stadium Referee: P Simpkins

TV: Delayed Fox Sports 1, 9.20pm FootyTAB Manly +7 1/2

STERLING SAYS: Canberra

Canberra did everything but win against the Storm and there's a lot to like about their squad this week. Davico, Croker, Wiki and McLinden are so important to this team and are all in their best positions. Have lost four in a row but last week was a definite improvement. Manly also went close and began with a much more physical approach in the opening quarter. Plenty of athleticism in their back row but the likes of Harris need to be more selective in their off-loads. Would like to see a concerted effort early in the game to take advantage of Walker's booming long kicks.

Canberra Manly

(1) C Schifcofske (1) B Stewart

(2) M Gafa (2) S Donald

(3) A Mogg (3) C Hicks

(4) J Monaghan (4) A Torrens

(5) M Robertson (5) J Hopoate

(6) J Croker (6) A Walker

(7) M McLinden (7) J Mullane

(13) T Martin (13) S Menzies (c)

(12) M Hodgson (12) A Watmough

(11) R Wiki (11) S Harris

(10) L Davico (10) S Haumono

(9) S Woolford (c) (9) N Hollingsworth

(8) R O'Hara (8) D Heckenberg

Reserves: Canberra: A Rothery, T Thompson, J Bulgarelli, I Hindmarsh, B Drew, K Kahler (two to be omitted).

Manly: S Dunley, I Donnelly, L Williamson, K Leuluai,

C Randall, J Robson, N Paterson (three to be omitted).

STATISTICS

Head to head

Canberra 14, Manly 17, drawn 1

At Canberra Stadium

Canberra 4, Manly 3

Last weekend

Canberra 18 Melbourne22

Manly 28 Cronulla 30

2004 positions

Canberra: 9th

Manly: 13th

GREG PRICHARD'S VERDICT

This is a massive game for the Raiders. They had a win over the Storm just about in the bag when they led by 10 points with five minutes left last weekend but somehow managed to lose it. That stretched their losing streak to four games and made this a must-win affair. The word out of Canberra is that there is no guarantee forwards Luke Davico and Ian Hindmarsh will overcome injury in time to play. But, fortunately, they get prop Ryan O'Hara back from State of Origin duty. The Raiders deserve favouritsim but don't go crazy about them.

Newcastle v Melbourne

Saturday 7.35pm EnergyAustralia Stadium Referee: T Archer

TV: Live Fox Sports 1 FootyTAB Melbourne +2 1/2

STERLING SAYS: Newcastle

Melbourne's intensity has definitely dropped and they are not enjoying the type of go-forward quick play-the-ball game that was once so effective. The form of Hill and Orford has plateaued without such a platform, and that makes the Storm a more controllable commodity. The Knights have been great in recent weeks, just hope the bye doesn't interfere with the momentum they've established. Apart from their obvious stars, the likes of Witt, Carmont, Hall, Lowrie and Price have all lifted their performances and consistency. Kurt Gidley will return from Origin with even more fizz and as usual that will be infectious.

Newcastle Melbourne

(1) M Hughes (1) B Slater

(2) C Hall (2) M Geyer

(3) M Gidley (3) S Bell

(4) G Carmont (4) J Webster

(5) A Quinn (5) D Cooper

(6) S Witt (6) S Hill

(7) K Gidley (7) M Orford

(13) T Lowrie (13) K Reynoldson

(12) A Price (12) S Kearney (c)

(11) C Newton (11) D Kidwell

(10) M Parsons (10) A Chan

(9) D Buderus (c) (9) C Smith

(8) A Woolnough (8) R Kearns

Reserves: Newcastle: M Kennedy, M Ennis, R Tanner,

R Brown.

Melbourne: D Williams, C Cronk, R Howe, D Johnson,

S Turner, N Friend (two to be omitted).

STATISTICSHead to head

Newcastle 9, Melbourne 3

At EnergyAustralia Stadium

Newcastle 6, Melbourne 0

Last weekend

Newcastle bye

Melbourne 22 Canberra 18

2004 positions

Newcastle: 5th

Melbourne: 7th

GREG PRICHARD'S VERDICT

When these two teams get together it is a licence to score tries. Their last seven clashes have resulted in an average match total of 61 points. They both like to force the pace and, if the passes stick, the pressure on the defence becomes enormous. Although they managed to beat the Raiders last weekend, the Storm still badly missed Billy Slater and Cameron Smith and they will be much better off for their return from State of Origin. BET: One unit on the over 47.5 points match total at $1.90.

THE STORY SO FAR: If you treat $10 as one unit, after 11 rounds we are showing a profit of $61.50.

Sydney Roosters v NZ Warriors

Sunday 2.35pm Aussie Stadium Referee: M Cecchin

TV: Live Fox Sports 1 FootyTAB NZ Warriors +12 1/2

STERLING SAYS: Roosters

The strength of the Roosters is best illustrated by this week's bench. They are deserved competition leaders following a string of professional and varying victories. They also have the style of game to move around this big Warriors outfit who these days look more vulnerable than intimidating. The Kiwis did get back into the winning list last round but lacked the spark and talent that made them such a handful. Hohaia was one shining light and possibly his combination with Jones can be a catalyst to lift the entire side. Expect the Roosters to look for inside passes and changes in direction to take advantage of tiring defenders.

Sydney Roosters NZ Warriors

(1) C Walker (1) B Webb

(2) T Byrne (2) H Faafili

(3) R Cross (3) V Anderson

(4) J Hodges (20)S Faumuina

(5) G Lester (5) M Vatuvei

(6) B Fittler (c) (6) S Jones

(7) B Finch (7) L Hohaia

(13) L Ricketson (13) W Koopu

(12) C Fitzgibbon (12) A Guttenbeil (c)

(11) M Crocker (11) K Temata

(10) N Catic (10) R Villasanti

(9) S Webb (9) P Dezolt

(8) P Cusack (8) J Seuseu

Reserves: Roosters: C Robinson, A Tupou, C Flannery,

J Cayless.

NZ Warriors: M Tookey, T Leuluai, E Tuimavave,

I Paleaaesina, J Murphy, E Lauaki (two to be omitted).

STATISTICS

Head to head

Roosters 6, Warriors 8

At Aussie Stadium

Roosters 4, Warriors 3

Last weekend

Roosters bye

Warriors 26 Sth Sydney 12

2004 positions

Roosters: 1st

NZ Warriors: 14th

GREG PRICHARD'S VERDICT

The Roosters have effectively handicapped themselves by standing down stars Anthony Minichiello and Craig Wing for disciplinary reasons, on top of Adrian Morley being out suspended, but it should only reduce their winning margin and not affect the result. The Warriors got off the bottom of the competition table by beating the Rabbitohs 26-12 last weekend but they didn't do anything stunning and will find it much harder against a Roosters defence that is conceding an average of just 14 points a game to be the best in the competition.

Penrith v Bulldogs

Sunday 3.05pm Penrith Football Stadium Referee: S Hampstead

TV: Delayed Channel Nine, 4pm FootyTAB Bulldogs +3 1/2

STERLING SAYS: Penrith

Panthers meet their first top-six side since round seven when they went down to the Broncos. Will need to improve on recent efforts where they've appeared to play within themselves to take the points. Last week was a prime example where they did just enough to account for the Cowboys. Without a magnificent showing from Martin Lang it may have been a bigger struggle. No Gower for a number of weeks but last week's formula of Campbell to half, Girdler at five-eighth and Whatuira into the centres is ready-made. The Dogs were less than impressive against the Tigers but did miss the honesty of O'Meley, Price and Ryan. Despite a big scoreline recently against the Dragons they are still below their best.

Penrith Bulldogs

(1) R Wesser (1) L Patten

(2) A Roberts (2) H El Masri

(17)P Whatuira (3) B Harris

(4) L Lewis (4) W Tonga

(5) L Rooney (5) J Lolesi

(3)R Girdler (6) B Anasta

(6)P Campbell (7) B Sherwin

(13) T Waterhouse (13) T Grimaldi

(12) T Puletua (12) A Ryan

(11) J Galuvao (11) W Mason

(10) M Lang (10) S Price (c)

(9) L Priddis (9) A Perry

(8) J Clinton (8) M O'Meley

Reserves: Penrith: F Pritchard, L Swain, B Ross, D Galea.

Bulldogs: R Maitua, D Scott, R Asotasi, J Feeney.

STATISTICS

Head to head

Penrith 22, Bulldogs 40,drawn 3

At Penrith Football Stadium

Penrith 13, Bulldogs 18, drawn 1

Last weekend

Penrith 22 North Qld 18

Bulldogs 26 Wests Tigers 30

2004 positions

Penrith: 3rd

Bulldogs: 4th

GREG PRICHARD'S VERDICT

The Panthers looked to have a slight edge at home before halfback Craig Gower was hurt playing State of Origin and ruled out of this game. Now there is a decent argument to say the edge has switched to the Bulldogs. The Panthers reversed a recent trend against the Bulldogs when they beat them at Penrith last season but it was only a two-point game and Gower played. We have two excellent forward packs here who are likely to cancel each other out. After that, it's up to the playmakers. Brent Sherwin could make the difference for the Bulldogs.

Wests Tigers v Parramatta

Sunday 3.05pm Leichhardt Oval Referee: S Hayne

TV: Delayed Fox Sports 1, 6pm FootyTAB Parramatta +5 1/2

STERLING SAYS: Wests Tigers

Tigers are into the top eight and will be difficult to budge. Another confidence-builder over the Bulldogs and now they face a side that has been forced to make five changes. The Eels are still struggling to match sides physically and that sees them on the wrong side of too many dominant tackles. The Tigers have an excellent hard-working pack, so the Eels need to address how they are to achieve quicker play-the-balls. The Tigers are in a position to win three in a row for the first time since late 2001. A lot of pressure on young Witt at five-eighth, halfback Thorman throws an excellent pass but is yet to create an opening for a teammate.

Wests Tigers Parramatta

(1) B Hodgson (1) W McKinnon

(2) J Moodie (2) B Anderson

(3) D Fitzhenry (3) A Graham

(4) S Elford (4) D Widders

(5) L Covell (5) L Burt

(6) B Marshall (6) M Witt

(7) S Prince (7) C Thorman

(13) S Sattler (13) D Wagon (c)

(12) M O'Neill (12) L Hopkins

(11) B Galea (11) N Hindmarsh

(10) J Skandalis (10) J Tsoulos

(9) D Senter (c) (9) J Webster

(8) A Laffranchi (8) M Vella

Reserves: Wests Tigers: T Payten, R Mears, D Halatau,

L Fulton.

Parramatta: S Muspratt, M Kaufusi, C Stapleton,

J Afamagasa, F Mateo (one to be omitted).

STATISTICS

Head to head

Wests Tigers 2, Parramatta 5, drawn 1

At Leichhardt Oval

Wests Tigers 1, Parramatta 1, drawn 1

Last weekend

Wests Tigers 30 Bulldogs 26

Parramatta 6 St Geo Illa 37

2004 positions

Wests Tigers: 8th

Parramatta: 10th

GREG PRICHARD'S VERDICT

The tide has turned for these two teams. The Tigers are on the way up, with a stable line-up and two wins in a row, and the Eels are on the way down, with an unstable line-up and four straight losses. The Tigers have a reputation for performing better as outsiders than as favourites but after you compare the line-ups and the form it's clear the Tigers would have to drop considerably on what they have produced recently to bring the Eels into the game. BET: Two units on the Tigers, minus 5.5 points, at $1.85.

NRL STATS AFTER ROUND 11
LADDER
                P       W       D       L       B       F       A       Pts

 ROOSTERS       10      8       0       2       1       254     140     18

 BRISBANE       10      7       0       3       1       257     198     16

 PENRITH                10      7       0       3       1       256     210
16
 BULLDOGS       10      7       0       3       1       253     213     16

 NEWCASTLE      10      6       0       4       1       239     227     14

 ST GEO ILLA    11      6       0       5       0       274     183     12

 MELBOURNE      10      5       0       5       1       288     206     12

 WESTS TIGERS   10      5       0       5       1       186     206     12

 Canberra       10      4       0       6       1       185     242     10

 Parramatta     10      4       0       6       1       219     287     10

 Cronulla               11      5       0       6       0       228     300
10
 North Qld      10      3       1       6       1       178     188     9

 Manly          10      3       0       7       1       239     268     8

 NZ Warriors    10      3       0       7       1       192     238     8

 South Sydney   10      2       1       7       1       145     287     7